Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Background: Mods, Revs, and Pro-Cons

Takoma Park politics seem bizarre to outsiders. That's because when outsiders compare the political positions of TP politicians with those of politicians in the rest of the country (excepting probably Berkley and other "liberal/progressive enclaves") ours seem pretty extreme. But, no, our politics are just like everyone else's in the sense that here are camps, factions, those in power and those who aren't, and they all act pretty much the same as they do anywhere else.

Here we've had one particular camp that's been in power since Stephen J Del Giudice was elected back in 1985 (can it be twenty years ago?!). I call that camp the Moderates. They unseated the Revolutionaries, the camp one former council-member calls "The Disloyal Opposition". This is the group of radical activists, led by the late mayor Sammie Abbott and a slate of radical city council candidates who swept into power in the early 80s. It really was a revolution, they seized control of the city from the conservative Seventh Day Adventists who had been running it for at least a couple of generations. The SDA promptly moved their world headquarters out of town, a sea-change of a magnitude that Takoma Park is not likely to see again for awhile, certainly not in this election.

The Revolutionaries promptly started factionalizing and in-fighting as soon as they gained office. They managed to lose the mayoral office because Sammie Abbott did things that some say were justified in the cause of his radical agenda, others say were abuses of power. The Revolutionaries have never quite gotten over the fact that they lost the city to the Moderates over this. On occasion they have tried to get it back, but each election shows how, even though this is the group that gave Takoma Park its reputation, their brand of politics is increasingly unpopular. The Moderates have won each mayoral election for the past 10 terms, starting with Stephen Del Giudice, then Ed Sharp, now Kathy.

The majority just doesn't want a Sammie Abbott-type rabble-rouser leading the city, even though Sammie was more responsible than just about anyone else for shaping the city's current image as a progressive, activist enclave (oh, that E-word again).

The Moderates drive the Revolutionaries crazy, as you might expect. The Revolutionaries fought for a decade to shape the city into a radical [e-word], only to see the Moderates horn in and with no more effort than buying homes, moving in, and voting, turn the city into an [e-word] for liberal homeowners with "peace" bumper-stickers on their gas-guzzling SUV's, the sort of people who say they "love Tree City" but get incensed when they discover the tree ordinance applies to them, too. These are people who are pleased to live in a city with a liberal cache, but are ambivalent about the city's past radical postures. They just want a City that provides services and a family-friendly small-town atmosphere - and that's what the Moderate Ed Sharp and Kathy Porter provided. If the services caused taxes to go up a bit, well, that's fine, they wanted those services and that's what taxes are for. If there were no radical programs coming out of the Mayor's office, that's fine too, as long as residents can get new curbs and plenty of speed-bumps on their streets, the Moderate camp doesn't care. The big issues were unifying the city into one county and saving the fire house, and had been since the Abbott days, but the Moderates went about it quietly, building relationships with the politicians who could make those things happen. No big Abbott-style confrontations, mass demonstrations, and public denouncements of other politicians.

How annoying - if you happen to be a Revolutionary.

And even more annoying how Mayor Porter easily swept to victory again and again, gathering endorsements from every organization in town, from other elected officials, and from influential citizens. Many of these endorsements even came from the Revolutionaries - people who admitted that while it would be nice to have a mayor who lived up the Takoma Park's reputation, Kathy knows how to get things accomplished. Her Revolutionary opponents, while sufficiently radical, seemed more than a little weak as administrators.

In the last few years however, we have seen the growth of a new faction. They hold a very odd position, considering local politics. They rail against excess spending and high taxes like traditional conservative Republicans would, yet they support liberal causes as much if not more-so than traditional progressive Democrats. In fact their candidate Seth Grimes says that as mayor he would be more pro-active in pursuing an environmental agenda for the city than Kathy has been. One of this faction's criticism of the Community Center construction, besides the cost overruns and mismanagement, is that the building is not sufficiently "green."

So the opposition to the mayor comes not from the Revolutionary left this time, its from the . . . . well, it's from the right and left - these people are progressive fiscal conservatives. Scratch your head over that one for while, especially when you consider that these Pro-Cons are attacking Kathy for being a tax-and-spend moderate. Kind of bends your mind in donut shapes, doesn't it?

Can the Pro-Cons pull it off, or are they destined to become outsider fist-shakers like the Revolutionaries? There are a lot of Porter loyalists out there. She has supportive quotes on her website from movers and shakers in the community, crowned with an endorsement from Tom Perez, County Council President. Bruce Williams is supporting her - he's the city council representative from Ward 3, traditionally the ward that turns out the most voters. Of course, Williams is unopposed, which may thin out that ward's vote. Look to Ward 2, the only ward in which there is a contested seat, for a big number of votes. And, that just happens to be Kathy's ward. Play the Jaws theme for Seth!

But, Kathy is swimming with the sharks herself these days - and she's bleeding in the water, due to wounds inflicted by the community center cost overruns. She acts wounded, too. Her campaign still doesn't seem to be in full swing, when Seth has been up and running since early October. His signs have been posted for at least a week, her's are just starting to appear and so far they are vastly outnumbered. Seth's very professional-looking website has been up for ages, [www.sethgrimes.com] while Kathy's just came online - a couple of weeks after she provided the url on her literature. Her's [www.kathyporterformayor.com] is pretty minimal compared to Seth', but then you'd expect a disparity, since websites and computers are Seth's business.

OK, enough background and horse-race speculation. Next time I'll write more on the candidate's positions, personalities, and campaigns (as I see them.

Meanwhile all of Seth's signs that he put out so early are getting soaked in tonight's downpour. I hope he got waterproof ones.

--Gilbert

16 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know why you find the "pro-con" position so baffling. Many people who move here are liberal in their views. Its a major draw living with like minded people that are willing to work for the "hippy mindset" but wanting to achieve those goals without spending like an a**hole. As house prices skyrocket and taxes go up its not a green light to spend as if we were Bethesda. We are working towards a seeming radical word view in a fiscally responsible manner. Spending money on things that we think matter not new offices for long time political incumbents. Radical politics doesn't mean radical spending.

12:45 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nobody objected to Abbott being a rabble-rouser or a revolutionary. In fact his politics were not much different from Del Guidice's. But during his last term Abbott became demented, mean-spirited, and impossible for virtually anyone to work with. The work of the city was not getting done, because nobody could communicate with the Mayor. The ward 6 councilman (whose name I can't recall) spent months trying to convice Del Guidice to run, in hopes that there would be a mayor that he could work with, and Del Guidice, reluctantly, eventually agreed. (Me, I have no involvement in politics whatsoever, but I was a close personal friend of Del Guidice during the 80s and remember this all too vividly.)

--Ray D.

9:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous,

The Pro-Con position is not so much baffling as it is unusual. In US mainstream political culture the label "tax-and-spend" is usually joined to "liberal". Here we have charges of "tax-and-spend" from the _left_.

--Gilbert

10:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I may be wrong on this but here's my take on it - I think liberals have finally made the paradigm shift that money is a limited resource in this wonderful Bush economy. So perhaps like other resources it deserves conservation and proper management. Perhaps this will catch on and spred to other communities. Takoma Park will be the spark.

12:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Crunch --

You've got an interesting and mostly accurate take on city politics over the last two years. But is it dummying things down just a bit to say that these folks are "pro-cons"? I guess it's the "cons" that gets me, and perhaps that is because they seem to have a point. If you're a homeowner in the [E-word], look at your tax bill over the last five years. It's getting higher, and higher, and higher. And people are literally being priced out of Takoma Park.

(I have to admit that I don't live in the Park, but I have other interests that bring me to the city).

Now why exactly are the tax bills getting higher? Well, part of it is life, but the other part of it is that the city seemed to get more and more parochial about its services, in spite of the fact that everyone in the City Council chamber realized that residents were being taxed twice.

Maybe I bristle a bit with people who characterize Seth et. al. as fiscal conservatives because what they're doing seems to make sense -- they have held the council's feet to fire (well, they've done the best they could considering the Moderate majority on the council).

Would you call the Terry Seamens a fiscal conservative? It seems like every other word out of his mouth is about cutting the city budget.

OK, abrupt topic change: Care to make any predictions about how many people in the city will be so fed up (or simply out of the know) that they'll actually cast a ballot for Rudy? He dropped out after the deadline, so his name will be there on the [E-word]’s magnificent paper ballots.

And finally, I have to throw this out there, because someone eventually will: Are you actually Larry Rubin? ;-)

1:31 PM  
Blogger William L. Brown said...

Sorry, I'm not going to give info about my identity one way or the other.

I take your point that I'm perhaps simplifying the "Pro-Cons" by labeling them as such. That won't stop me, though, it's too good a term.

Yes, the Pro-Cons, or more specifically, Sustainable Takoma, has pounded away on their theme of fiscal conservatism, but I question just how accurate their assumptions are. I recall one of their earliest efforts was a comparison chart showing how much more Takoma Park residents are taxed for services. Several people pointed out to them that their figures were skewed because services in other jurisdictions were not equal, in some cases there were user fees not reflected in the numbers, and so forth. Despite this information, their charts never changed.

This is similar to Seth's position on crime. He talks about an increase, but most recent figures show a decrease. "Crime" is at the top of his list of issues on his website. He hedges it by saying "people don't fee safe" rather than assert there is an actual increase in crime, but that's the impression he's giving.

I think these are folks who have a point of view and they aren't going to let the facts get in the way.

--Gilbert

11:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This is similar to Seth's position on crime. He talks about an increase, but most recent figures show a decrease. "Crime" is at the top of his list of issues on his website. He hedges it by saying "people don't fee safe" rather than assert there is an actual increase in crime, but that's the impression he's giving. "

I think this has more to do with the impact and impression of the crimes. In the last couple of years the impression is that violent crime has increased as opposed to passive crime. ( i.e. robbery vs burglary) While all crime is undesirable,a fear for personal safety is more alarming then loss or damage of property.

Could you direct us to the report somewhere online so we can see "the actual figures". Are the statistics broken down into types of crime.

8:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is from a recent public posting from the TP Police Affairs Specialist. The only significant increase is in larcony, and 2005 larcony numbers are about same to 2003's. It don't look like a big crime wave is happening!

"The UCR Part I crime statistics for 2004 in the City were published in the March City Newsletter. These can be accessed at http://www.takomagov.org/news/newsletter/2005/march05.pdf on page 9
of the on-line newsletter. In addition to the 2004 totals, charts show the statistics for 10 years and descriptions of the crime categories.

As you know, we provide the Council with statistics, including numbers by police beat, on a quarterly basis, through the weekly report. The following comes from those reports.

The reports for the first half of 2005 are: homicide, 0; rape, 3; robbery, 28; aggravated assault, 11; burglary, 72; larceny, 235; and vehicle theft, 53, for a Part I crime total of 402.

The reports for the first half of 2004 were: homicide, 0; rape, 1; robbery, 30; aggravated assault, 16; burglary, 73; larceny, 194; and vehicle theft, 67, for a Part I crime total of 381. The increase in 2005 compared to 2004 is seen primarily in the 21% increase in larceny. Larceny essentially is the taking of property in which no force, violence or fraud is used, which includes shoplifting, purse snatching, theft from auto, bike thefts, etc.

The reports for the first half of 2003 were: homicide, 1; rape, 6; robbery, 44; aggravated assault, 7; burglary, 62; larceny, 230; and vehicle theft, 100, for a Part I crime total of 450.

Using 10 years of statistics from 1994-2003, the anticipate range for ANNUAL crimes would be: homicide, .27 - 1.93; rape, 4.71 - 8.90; robbery, 65.93 - 98.07; aggravated assault, 21.21 - 62.79; burglary, 130.74 - 184.66; larceny, 488.28 - 606.72; and vehicle theft, 131.7 - 200.49, for a total of Part I crimes ranging from 916.13 - 1,090.47.

I will be checking to see what happened to the UCR statistics on the police web page and get them up. If you have additional questions before
that, please feel free to contact me.

Carol A. Bannerman
Police Affairs Specialist"

10:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As per the crime blotter we have had 44 robberies by rough count to date. So if 21 - 54 more people are robbed that will be acceptable consistent with the statistics? The mindset being as long as we are keeping it within acceptable rates we are ahead of the curve.

1:30 PM  
Blogger William L. Brown said...

Waitaminute. You Grimes supporters are inconsistant on this crime issue.

The website makes out like their is a crime wave, I pointed out that there is no crime wave.

Then you say that Seth is actually talking about the fear created by the IMPRESSION of increased crime . "While all crime is undesirable,a fear for personal safety is more alarming then loss or damage of property."

Now, you're saying that NO crime is acceptable. I don't see that position stated on his website.

I do see a pledge to implement a lot of actions regarding the police which to me seem costly and likely to take a long time. One proposal is to raise the salaries of the police. An odd proposal from someone pledged to lower taxes without losing services. Seth says tax revenue from new commercial enterprize will pay for it, but those enterprizes are years away from becoming a tax source.

--Gilbert

1:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Now, you're saying that NO crime is acceptable. I don't see that position stated on his website."

Don't strawman me. Crime is unavoidable in our urban situation. It is the personal safety that is a concern. I applaud the department of their efforts. They are in a difficult situation. We border some of the highest crime areas in DC area. We get spill over. We would like to be able to walk our streets. If budget adjustments need to made to accommodate this concern it is consistent with using funds in an appropriate and responsible manner.

The actions that he wants to implement are for retention of officers and improvement of the force. It is a valid application of community funds. Where as a new office building for the government may not be as valid.

How about trash? We started having our own collections so we could recycle. Now the county has the same services. Are we saving by doing it ourselves? Looking at duplicated services and seeing where the best bang for our buck is a great place to start.

Basically it is a reassessment of what we as community want and how we can be financially responsible in achieving those goals. Kathy gives the impression ( may be false ) its not "that" broken lets plug along ahead.

2:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I take issue with one part of your analysis -- "pro" doesn't really belong with TkPk's new "cons." These are dyed-in-the-wool tax-cut freaks angling any way they can to get a few buck back in their greedy pockets. All the progressive talk from them is a put-on, because they know that revealing their true colors would leave them dead in our [E-word]. The only differences between these guys an the neocons is that (a) they don't have any military forces to depoy and (b) they don't claim that cutting taxes will raise revenue.

10:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said: Would you call the Terry Seamens a fiscal conservative? It seems like every other word out of his mouth is about cutting the city budget.

This is the same Terry Seamens who made proposals to spend $300,000 on new social programs at the very end of the budget process a few months ago? He couldn't define any of the process to spend the money, he just wanted to add money to help our poorest residents? Set up a fund and let some undefined body dispense it. A real budget cutter, eh?

6:08 AM  
Blogger William L. Brown said...

I've heard Seth say that he wants to keep rent "stabilization" in order to preserve diversity and protect low-incomoe renters. I"ve also heard him say that he is open to tinkering with the law - but not to the detriment of LIR's.

In addition he talks about helping LIRs purchase their own apartments if their buildings are condo-izing. I think this is far divorced from the reality of most LIRs.

Rent control, however, is not going to stop the wave of condo-conversion that is sweeping the region. That is a far-bigger threat to renters of all income levels right now. And, there's not much the city can do about it.


- Gilbert

1:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Homeownership is at the highest levels in U.S. history, I think around 70 percent. This has created higher vacancy rates in rental housing. I would think (and this isn't my area of housing policy) that this will equalize, and that condo-conversion will slow as we top out on homeownership. There are also a lot of folks out there sitting on variable rate loans, and negative amortization loans, that will not remain in homeownership. That will spill housing into the buyers market when the interest rates make those loans untenable. This should ease conversion in most markets.

However, in Takoma Park there is an additional force behind condo conversion -- rent control in an era of rising property values.

Say you bought a $100,000 property in 1990, set the rent equal to the 100% mortgage cost, at $600. The property pays for its operating cost, and you make money on the rising equity from payments and inflation. Housing values are gaining at say 6 percent a year. But inflation allows for only a 4 percent increase in rents. By 2000, the value of the house has increased more than 20% over the rental value. If you sell it as a rental, its value is relative to its income potential, which is artificially deflated. If you convert it, you can realize the full value. In simple math, not compounded because I don't have a calculator handy, the difference is only $20,000. Once you pay to sell it, it's not worth it for the small gain.

Fast forward to 2005, where housing values have risen almost 50 percent in two years, and will rise another 15 this year. That's a home value of $350,000 (compounded -- I found a calculator). But the rental value is only 188,000. SO now the difference between selling as a conversion and renting is $162,000. That's about $1000 a month in rental income lost relative to buying a place outside the city.
While each of us might make a different choice faced with this opportunity, you can see the incentive to sell.

Consider the options on the table for addressing this.

Limit condo conversions. This will likely result in mass conversions prior to enactment of the law. Also expect to lawsuits under the takings clause by everyone who doesn't get out before the deadline. Note the two new supremes.....Expect to lose. Rent control is to be decided on again this term, I believe. It will continue to come up until it is ruled unconstitutional. (Excuse me for being a pessimist here)

Eliminate vacancy control, and allow the rent to be reset everytime a new tenant moves in. This will likely result in illegal evictions and tenant harrassment. We will slowly lose affordability, but for those who move in, they will be assured of some stability in future rent. Won't protect the diversity we've come to know.

We need to plot a new course. I think the answer is to phase in changes while simultaneously building our own supply of affordable rental housing. Entities that are invested in their own housing stock, have best survived the housing booms and busts.

What do you think?

3:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilbert,
Having been out of town I am just catching up with your blog which I greatly appreciate.
I just wish that you had tried to be a little more informed about Sustainable Takoma: it would prevent you from oversimplifying our perspectives. At ST, we have tried to wake TKPk from its Brigadoon state and start debates on some issues. And yes, given the way things have been going over the last 10 years, fiscal issues have figured prominently. Just as you do not have the time to blog regularly, we do not either have unlimited amount of time and we had to chose issues according to what we perceived as priority. And prudent fiscal management was one that was identified.
I for one do not have my mind made up about things but I refuse to accept the dogma that TkPk as it is necesarily the best place around. But you should know that starting a discussion with the Moderates is not an easy task as they are masters of the passive agressive method. For example, I am responsible for the chart with the comparison of taxes between TkPk and other municipalities in MontCo and I knew that there were services that in some cases were not provided through taxtaion but separate fees but it was not posible to include them inthe chart since they did not have a similar base. Research had indicated that most of these fees were related to garbage collection and were in the range of $250 to $400 per annum. A far cry from the thousands that a TkPk owner pays in addition to what is paid to MontCo. The only response from the Moderates was that our services are better: as they did not even attempt to demonstrate this fact it was again a dogmatic approach to public management to preserve the statu quo at all cost! ST had made a claim and supported it. Shouldn't it have been the responsibility of the moderates to support they counterclaim? This pattern has been repeated many times, including the modeling of the impact of different alternatives to finance road repair that we provided: lots of work went into it but it would have implied a possible reconsideration of a decison that had already been made (and had been made months ahead of time) albeit no yet voted on. In other words, do not embarrass me with facts as my mind is already made up. And I learned that Kathy is not the only one at city hall with the attitude of "I know best and you know jack" as a mayor- basher glogged recently.
And, by the way, the last election were not our apogee. We at ST will keep on working on issues that affect our community using the resources that we can mobilize.
Looking forward to you future posts.

5:46 PM  

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